Certainly the Germans will be working against leftist nationalist groups. On the one hand, Germany advancing and pushing back any sort of authority for Moscow will give nationalists more space even as contradictory policies by the Germans (going from their OTL impact on the areas they occupy) mean the German left hand is wrestling with the German right hand.
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Does that mean a broad coalition of Russian leftist groups has to band together and that gels into a compromise democracy that survives until at least the Great Depression? Does von Ungern-Sternberg become supreme dictator of all Russia through a series of improbable events and make Russia dystopian even compared to OTL? Is WW1 followed by a longer and harder civil war as the much weakened Bolsheviks fight with the relatively stronger Whites? I really don't know.Īnd if, say, the Bolsheviks embraced a policy of passive resistance what are the impacts on the German soldiers trying to occupy the region? And what happens when those soldiers return to Germany?Īnd what are the impacts on the nationalist groups in Western Russia? Does a deeper German penetration of Russia help or hinder them? I can see arguments both ways. The Bolsheviks could end up as deeply wounded from the German advance as Nationalist China was by operation Ichi Go. On the other hand, is Russia better off? I really have no idea.
I think Germany will be even worse off than in OTL. At the same time, things are getting worse in the West. However, at the same time, the Germans don't have the morale boost of a victory in the east, still have to commit more resources on that front than OTL, and moving deeper makes them ever more vulnerable as their rear echelons are spread ever thinner. Petrograd is definitely vulnerable and I feel and even Moscow could end up occupied. The Germans, of course, have total military superiority, and can move pretty much as far as they want into Russia.
For sure this will have big consequences, but I struggle to imagine exactly what.